How Economic Uncertainty and New Tariffs Could Impact Your Clients’ Workforce Strategy

Recent policy shifts, including the Supreme Court ruling striking down the administration’s sweeping tariffs, are creating new waves of uncertainty across global markets, business operations, and employer strategies. What was framed as an economic stabilizer has now entered a new and more complex chapter.

And while the headlines focus on geopolitical maneuvering, market reactions, HR leaders are already feeling the impact: shifting cost structures, planning ambiguity, and growing anxiety as organizations attempt to regain footing.

If this moment feels familiar, it’s because it is. Just as in the 2018–2019 tariff cycle, employers confronted disrupted supply chains, inflationary pressures, unpredictable cost surges, and rising operational costs. Today, those dynamics are resurfacing, but with an added twist: the Supreme Court’s ruling has invalidated billions in previously collected tariffs and opened the door to potential refunds, while the administration simultaneously pledges to impose new tariffs under alternative statutes, mentioned directly following the ruling and again during his 2026 State of the Union address.

This evolving environment demands HR teams stay agile.

Four Workforce Implications HR Leaders Must Prepare For

Here are 4 key considerations to guide your clients’ people strategy through this new period of volatility.

Tariffs Can Fuel Rising Healthcare and Pharmacy Costs

The healthcare system remains highly reliant on imported goods, from medical devices to pharmaceuticals. In fact, 69% of medical devices sold in the U.S. are manufactured abroad.

However, the recent Supreme Court ruling striking down several emergency-based tariffs may ease some of the previously anticipated cost pressures tied to import duties. While not all tariffs have been eliminated, and trade policy remains fluid, the decision could modestly reduce or stabilize tariff-driven price increases across parts of the healthcare supply chain.

This is particularly relevant in pharmacy. Many generic medications, and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) used to manufacture them, are sourced internationally. To the extent tariff layers are removed or reduced; some upstream cost pressure on manufacturers and distributors may soften. While this is unlikely to materially lower drug prices on its own, it may help moderate pharmacy trend assumptions compared to prior projections.

For HR and benefits teams, this could mean:

• Fewer or smaller tariff-driven midyear premium adjustments than originally forecast
• Moderated pressure to reduce benefits or shift additional costs to employees
• Continued strain on workers already facing affordability challenges

That said, trade policy remains dynamic, and certain tariffs may still apply under other authorities. Plan sponsors should continue monitoring supply chain exposure, particularly in pharmacy and medical device categories with high import reliance.

Now is the time to revisit plan design strategy and explore cost containment tools, from pharmacy benefit audits to alternative funding models.

Financial Stress and Uncertainty Often Translate into Workplace Risk

Economic ambiguity, including tariff reversals, potential refund disputes, renewed tariff threats, and volatile consumer prices, can heighten employee financial stress. The Supreme Court ruling will likely lower prices on some imported goods and could ease the cost burdens for households; however, any new tariffs enacted under other statutes could reintroduce instability quickly. Further, ongoing inflation, slow wage growth, and rising medical costs can prolong financial insecurity. For employees living paycheck to paycheck, one medical bill or pharmacy copay can become a crisis.

For HR leaders, this means preparing for predictable downstream impacts:

• Increased absenteeism, presenteeism, and burnout
• Higher demand for behavioral health services
• Greater safety and workers’ compensation risks and claims tied to distraction, fatigue, work overload, and stress

Bolstering financial wellbeing benefits, communicating early and often about available support, and reinforcing safety and mental health infrastructure are essential, especially in times when employees feel caught in the crosscurrents of national policy shifts.

Sudden Policy Reversals Reinforce the Need for Strong Business Continuity Planning

The Supreme Court’s decision not only struck down existing tariffs but also triggered broad uncertainty about trade agreements and potential business refunds, introducing new operational and financial planning challenges. At the same time, new tariffs enacted under alternative authorities could alter supply chain costs again in the near term. Also, in times of economic uncertainty, HR becomes central to business continuity. Workforce planning, leave management, safety protocols, and cross-functional coordination will play a key role in helping businesses stay agile and operational, especially in industries hit hardest by supply chain disruption or pricing volatility.

For HR and operations leaders, this is a crucial moment to ask:

• Do our systems support rapid workforce and leave management shifts?
• Are our leave policies, payroll, benefits systems, and safety protocols aligned?
• Do we have a strategy in place to protect our workforce and manage risk during sustained instability?
• Do we have clear communication pathways across HR, finance, risk and operations?
• What scenarios should we model now before any new tariff structures take effect?

Organizations with flexible workforce strategies, including cross-training, contingent staffing plans, and connected HR tech, will be positioned to absorb policy whiplash.

This Remains a Time for Creative, People-Centered Strategy 

Economic headwinds often push employers toward cost-cutting, but the most resilient organizations pursue a different path. Even as tariff policy enters a volatile new phase, businesses that prioritize employee trust, equity, and transparent communication around financial-decision making will weather turbulence more effectively.

That might look like:

• Redesigning benefits to protect lower-wage workers
• Enhanced voluntary benefits or tiered care navigation support
• Exploring captives, pooled solutions, or alternative funding models
• Clear and candid communication around cost pressures and organization priorities
• New or sustained feedback channels that prioritize employee sentiment

The Supreme Court ruling may have wiped away one set of tariffs, but uncertainty remains, and your clients and their people will continue looking to HR for steadiness, clarity, and care.